New CO2 emission limits on existing electric generation units

Tomorrow, we will hear the news that a new target of 30% reduction in CO2 from the 2005 levels will be implemented to be in place by 2020

The electric generation CO2 emissions for 2005 were 2,373 million metric tons with the following breakdown:

-          87    petroleum

-          292 Natural Gas

-          1,982 Coal

-          12 other (geothermal – non biogenic, and muni solid waste)

-          2373 – total CO2 emissions

-          3901 billion kWh total net generation

-          Avg emission rate    0.6 ton CO2/MWh

The targeted amount for 2020 based on the 30% reduction from the 2005 level or 1,825 million metric tons.

The 2014 AEO early edition is showing that the projected 2020 emissions for the electric sector is 2,112 million metric tons with the following breakdown:

-          13 petroleum

-          478 natural gas

-          1,609 coal

-          12 other

-          2,112 million metric tons total

-          4,193 billion kWh of net generation  (7.48% more than the 2005 level for an average growth rate of 0.48% AGR [very low])

-          Avg projected emission rate of 0.50 ton CO2/MWh

The net reduction required based on the 2020 projection is a 14.6% reduction from the 2020 value. 

  

The targeted reduction of CO2 based on the 2020 projection of 2,112 million metric tons is 287 million metric tons.

It is also worth considering that the 2013 total CO2 emissions were 2,083 million tons and there is only a total of 1.4% of projected CO2 emission increase from 2013-2020.  This seems pretty low and is only 0.2% AGR from 2013-2020

If the 2020 projection is correct, the 287 million metric ton reduction could be met by a combination of energy reduction measures, moving more energy production to gas, and increasing energy from renewables. 

If half came from renewable, the amount of renewable energy would be tied to another 20,000 MW of retired coal, on top of the current projection of 50,000 MW of retired coal.  The amount of wind needed to produce 143 million MWh of power is in the range of 40,810 MW assuming a 40% capacity factor. 

If the other half came from natural gas dispatch over coal, there would be a need for nearly 41,000 MW of combined cycle to be dispatched at about 80% to provide this energy.   The existing fleet of combined cycle is dispatched at about 60%, so there is conceivably some room to increase from existing resources. 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  

The target year for 30% reduction is 2030. 

The base projection for 2030 is 2,227 million tons, rather than the 2,112  for 2020

The total reduction needed is 402 million tons. 

My adjusted amount of new wind for half the impact is 57,400 MW and about 26,000 MW of additional coal retirements

My adjusted amount for the amount of new combined cycle generation is 57,400 MW

The reliability impact of these resource changes is not likely to be looked at very closely initially, but will need to be looked at very carefully to make sure that the impact is known. 

Tom

Energy Interaction - Chpt 1

We wake up in the morning - from an alarm powered by electricity.  Our home is being maintained at a comfortable temperature as provided by the delivery of energy.  We make coffee, make breakfast, grab our belongings and head out the door.  These happened much faster because of the ease of utilizing energy for accomplishing these tasks.   We move on with our day using more energy by using a form of transportation to reach our workplace, school, or shopping destination. Once we arrive at our destination, we are then able to perform the intended duties with much more of our time available for this "leveraged" activity, rather than having to expend large amounts of time or personal energy to make them happen. Each of these arenas of energy usage deserves a closer look to really understand what it takes to deliver this incredibly wide range of energy to our fingertips.

Electricity is an energy form that flows to such a wide diversity of usages, that it becomes a figurative life-line of energy to our society.   There is one clear pattern to understand about electricity, and that is that electricity is always taking one form of available energy and converting it into the movement of electrons across a conductor.  As an example, differences in temperature create differences in pressure, thereby causing the wind to blow.  The energy from the moving air molecules causes the blades of a wind turbine to turn, and create electricity.  The energy from coal or wood is released when burned, heats up water to create steam, the steam pressure is created from the combustion process to allow the steam to have enough energy to turn a turbine(blades configured in a circle to "catch" the steam) which is connected to the electric generator to create electricity.  Can we simply put it to rest that these nutty ideas of connecting some mystery box to your house will give you free electricity.  Sorry, it isn't a utility conspiracy seeking to squelch anyone who can develop this free energy machine.  I would maintain that all energy except nuclear is fundamentally from our great controlled miracle of controlled fusion power - the mighty sun.  The sun grew the plants, they decomposed, and created coal, gas and oil.   Solar power is clearly power directly from the sun.  Wind is created by differences in temperature, and that is from the sun.   A smaller amount of electricity is created using a turbine and capturing the expanded hot gasses from combustion across a turbine, which creates a spinning machine.  Jet engines are similar to turbines used to generation electricity.   There are also generation plants called combined cycle plants, that are a combustion turbine  plant that takes the waste heat from the turbine, and creates a second steam cycle from the heat, and turns another steam turbine to create more electricity.  These types of plants are the most efficient plants available using fossil fuels and have nearly a 50% efficiency when comparing the heat available from the fuel compared to the amount of electricity that is produced.

Another critical element to understand about electricity travels at nearly the speed of light.  There is no storage of electricity, unless it is integrated with some type of storage system, which can include a hydro dam, or a more innovative system such as compressed air storage, or a battery storage system.   The bulk of all electricity is produced, transmitted, and used in the same instant of time.  Power can flow from New York to California 32 times per second because of its incredible speed.  Power doesn't typically flow that far, but we will learn later that we have three distinct regions where power can flow, and there are limited ties across the system that allow smaller transfers of power.  We have heard the term "smart grid" which implies that we currently have a dumb grid, or an obsolete one at best.  This is not our father's Oldsmobile, when you consider that 365 days a year 24 hours per day, you never have uttered a blink of information as to how much power you are going to use, and yet every single time you hit the switch, put the toaster down, etc, the power is there to do the job.  That power was created at virtually the same instant of time, transmitted over hundreds of miles, and used for energy use you expect to be available.   To be fair, the smart grid is envisioned to add new features to our current capabilities including finding ways to fix power outages, provide a means for a customer to select usage based on price etc.  Let's call that "smarter grid" and leave the term "smart grid" to describe our current capabilities.

Heating systems are our next topic to delve into.  Most of the country has an incredible network of natural gas pipelines that tie into natural gas distribution systems that end up providing natural gas right to the house or business.  Most furnaces are very efficiency, with many units in the range of 95% efficient.  This level of efficiency is difficult to argue with, and we end up asking what type of energy would be available to provide the heat needed to survive in colder climates.  Furnaces in colder areas of the country are rated in net British Thermal units (BTU) and typically run in the range of 120,000 btu/hour.  Electric only heating systems run in the range of 20,000 watts, which is the same as 68,265 Btu/hr.  Any alternative energy solution that seeks to eliminate or drastically reduce fossils would require a significant amount of electric energy, and the energy must be available at the right time in order to make sure there is heat when needed.    Alternatives need to take these issues into account, and not just sum up some annual values of power from wind, and solar etc to determine if there is a fit to the amount of energy needed for heating.

Transportation is our next sub-area of discussion.  The issue of liquid fossil fuels vs. battery power comes down to an understanding of how much energy can you store per unit of mass.  The efficiency of the transportation device must also be taken into consideration.   When you compare gasoline to battery, gasoline if 138,000 Btu/gal or __ btu/lb.   A lithium battery has an energy storage of ___ btu/lb, but has a much higher efficiency.  The range of a vehicle for a fuel fill is the metric that counts, and nets out all of the energy storage and efficiency values into a net measure.  For a typical mid-size vehicle getting 25 miles per gallon and a 12 gallon tank, the range is 300 miles.  The range for a diesel getting 45 miles per gallon would be well over 400 miles for a 12 gallon fuel tank.  The range of the Chevy volt is 380 miles.  One interesting aspect of gasoline and diesel engines is that the waste heat from the engine is used to heat the interior, which is a crucial element of transportation in colder climates.  Batteries also have a much lower life in the cold climates, and the vehicle ranges are typically half what they are in more moderate climates.

Electricity moves at nearly the speed of light from the generator to the end use load.  This speed is astounding and is fast enough to move from LA to New York 32 times per second.  This real time delivery attribute makes it a real challenge for electric utilities to be able to make sure they are exactly the right amount of electric generation available to meet the load.

One way to look at electricity is that it is virtually attached to the same shaft is a generator so it's mechanically coupled from the source of electricity to the use of electricity.  The shaft may twist slightly with surges of increases or decreases in either usage or available power, but they stay locked in on the "shaft" from the source generation to the loads.  Every toaster, every refrigerator, every computer are "mechanically linked" to the electric generators through the distribution and transmission lines.  

A significant issue with transportation use is the energy density of the fuel being used.  Batteries have __ btu/lb of energy with a __ efficiency  while gasoline has an energy density of 138,000 btu/gal and an  efficiency of only 20-25%   the bottom line with the battery fuel is that you have much less density per unit of mass.  there is also significant inconvenience in needing to recharge when making a longer trip.   the time that it takes to refuel a liquid fuel tank is really short compared to any option of charging the battery.   exchanging batteries is another option, but then you get into an issue of how many charges the battery has had and the ownership across large geographic distances.

Why Energy Sense - Intro

We are living in a world that has increased its push to changing its energy resources.  There are concerns about global warming, and continued pushes to reduce carbon emissions.  Electric utilities are being pushed to include a mandatory percentage of its generation from renewable resources, and there is are also mandates for increasing the amounts energy efficiency.  With all this in mind, and an increased level of polarization in our country as to what we should do in terms of future energy resources.  Most of the dialog on these issues is focused on differences of costs, and does not get into some of the more intricate issues of how energy is sourced, and delivered.  These issues can be much more difficult to explain and most of the experts are not exactly the best writers and communicators on the earth.  Their job is to keep the lights on and they go the job every day, do home and don't write books.  It is high time that we get into some information about how we can do the job we do right now, and understand what it will take for any new ideas to be able to provide the same level of usefulness that we are currently getting from electricity.  It is my contention that we are living in a world with one-dimensional ideas that have not been fully vetted to know that they will work.  Here are a list of some basic issues that need to be wrung out in the light of not only an economic discussion, but also a technical discussion so we can discuss energy ideas in the arena of being a plan, and not a thrust of a few ideas that may or may not fit into a workable plan.

Here are the basic assumptions I assume that we are all seeking when it comes to energy:

1. People need to maintain their ability to have shelter from the elements that allows protection from both the elements of weather, and the extremes of temperatures
2. People will continue to need to eat, and will not be growing their own produce or herding their own cattle.  This will require the full range of growing, processing, transporting and retailing food products across the range of food products where some are frozen, canned, dried, and fresh.
3. People will need to be transported from places of residence to places of work, recreation, going on errands, etc. and desire the flexibility to be able to set their own schedules for such transportation
4. Energy usage in modern societies allow for the highest level of economic activity to occur, minimizing periods for food preparation, transportation, gathering fuel, etc.  Less developed counties have situations where people are walking long distances to work, school etc, cooking over their own fires, dealing with needing to buy fresh food every few days because of lack of refrigeration, etc.
5. Energy usage in modern societies allow for incredible levels of inefficiencies due to the development of machinery, farm equipment, road graders, pay loaders etc.  The reduction in manual labor, increased levels of productivity, reduced accidents etc have been astounding.
6. Electric energy usage has provided an incredible range of products that provide work, allow food storage, power heating and cooling delivery systems, and power the wide range of modern computing devices.
7. Energy solutions for providing heat and transportation in colder climates must receive basic scrutiny as to their viability.
8. Changes to energy systems must include considerations of both the viability of the alternatives being considered, and economics of the alternative, including the viability of customers being able to make the necessary purchases
9.  Costs for new energy systems need to include not only the capital costs, operating costs, but also the maintenance costs.  For some systems such as hybrid cars, there is a significant cost of needing to replace battery systems at some point.  This would also be the case for battery energy storage systems that are being considered as the lynch pin to widespread developments of renewable energy systems.
10. The acceptance of new energy systems needs to be considered as a vital element in making any desired transformations.  Pushing for mandates to "get the job done" is likely to be a path that leads to higher costs and unhappy customers.  The termination of producing the Chevy Volt in 2008 was not widely discussed, but is a clear indication that people are either not ready, or they can't afford an electric car that includes an on-board gas powered battery charger.  Forcing the usage of the compact florescent is an example of mandated change, and this has been met with resistance and concerns over issues like unhealthy waves radiating from the lights, dangers of mercury being spilled from a broken bulb.  

What is Energy Sense Now?

In most of the world, and certainly in America we are using energy from the moment we get up, throughout the day to the time we go to bed.  Most live in an extremely controlled environment, travel quickly from one location to another, and make the best use of our productive time with a very small percentage of our time dedicated to basic survival, such as growing and gathering food, staying warm enough etc.  We have a portfolio of energy at our fingertips that allow us to be comfortable and make the most of our productive hours to earn a living.  Energy Sense is a way of thinking that breaks down this steady stream of energy that allows us to be the most productive.  The main premise is that energy is the economic lifeline and blood flow that makes us productive.  There are many voices in our current political stage and pseudo scientific stage saying that we have a huge crisis on the horizon driven by human caused uses of CO2.  Energy Sense Now doesn't primarily focus on refuting arguments of global warming, but it is part of the discussion.  Energy Sense Now is focused on the line of thought that if we are going to keep moving ahead with our incredibly efficient means of making use of all energy forms, we cannot replace our current usage for the current functionality with another proposed type of energy without having a CLEAR picture that the replacement will end up providing the same or improved functionality.  The primary alternatives being proposed to Coal, and Oil are Wind, Solar and natural gas.  We will break these down and really get an idea on how these energy sources can be interchanged for equivalent functionality.  Here are some important points to consider when thinking through various types of liquid fuel and electric generation alternatives.

1. Electricity is generated, transmitted across hundreds of miles, and consumed in virtually the same instant of time.
2.  Energy density of batteries vs. liquid fuels is the main barrier to electric only cars.
3.  Wind generation is available at a max of 40% of the time
4.  Solar generation is available for about 15% of the time
5.  Coal generation is available for about 85% of the time


We will dig in and break these facts down into a set of ideas that allow future energy plans to be hammered out that are responsible and don't leave us with 10 second sound bytes that won't deliver what we have right now, in terms of what we get from our energy.

Stay tuned!!