The electric generation CO2 emissions for 2005 were 2,373
million metric tons with the following breakdown:
-
87 petroleum
-
292 Natural Gas
-
1,982 Coal
-
12 other (geothermal – non biogenic, and muni
solid waste)
-
2373 – total CO2 emissions
-
3901 billion kWh total net generation
-
Avg emission rate 0.6 ton
CO2/MWh
The targeted amount for 2020 based on the 30% reduction from
the 2005 level or 1,825 million metric tons.
The 2014 AEO early edition is showing that the projected
2020 emissions for the electric sector is 2,112 million metric tons with the
following breakdown:
-
13 petroleum
-
478 natural gas
-
1,609 coal
-
12 other
-
2,112 million metric tons total
-
4,193 billion kWh of net generation (7.48%
more than the 2005 level for an average growth rate of 0.48% AGR [very low])
-
Avg projected emission rate of 0.50 ton CO2/MWh
The net reduction required based
on the 2020 projection is a 14.6% reduction from the 2020 value.
The targeted reduction of CO2
based on the 2020 projection of 2,112 million metric tons is 287 million metric
tons.
It is also worth considering that
the 2013 total CO2 emissions were 2,083 million tons and there is only a total
of 1.4% of projected CO2 emission increase from 2013-2020. This seems
pretty low and is only 0.2% AGR from 2013-2020
If the 2020 projection is correct,
the 287 million metric ton reduction could be met by a combination of energy
reduction measures, moving more energy production to gas, and increasing energy
from renewables.
If half came from renewable, the
amount of renewable energy would be tied to another 20,000 MW of retired coal,
on top of the current projection of 50,000 MW of retired coal. The amount
of wind needed to produce 143 million MWh of power is in the range of 40,810 MW
assuming a 40% capacity factor.
If the other half came from
natural gas dispatch over coal, there would be a need for nearly 41,000 MW of
combined cycle to be dispatched at about 80% to provide this
energy. The existing fleet of combined cycle is dispatched at about
60%, so there is conceivably some room to increase from existing
resources.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
The target year for 30%
reduction is 2030.
The base projection for 2030 is
2,227 million tons, rather than the 2,112 for 2020
The total reduction needed is
402 million tons.
My adjusted amount of new wind
for half the impact is 57,400 MW and about 26,000 MW of additional coal
retirements
My adjusted amount for the
amount of new combined cycle generation is 57,400 MW
The reliability impact of these
resource changes is not likely to be looked at very closely initially, but will
need to be looked at very carefully to make sure that the impact is
known.
Tom
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